March 22, 2023

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On Monday, the dollar essentially shrugged of the threat by US President Donald Trump of not signing a coronavirus aid package, as many investors were on holiday. In the Asian session, the pound was hovering near its two-and-a-half-year high, after the last-minute agreement of a narrow Brexit trade deal last week that does not cover the financial sector in Britain. After a three-day slide in the dollar index, it remained unchanged at a value of 90.151. There was a 0.2% gain seen in Sterling, as it reached $1.3565, once again inching back towards the $1.3625 mark that it had reached for the first time earlier this month since May of 2018.

After initially refusing to do so, Donald Trump changed his mind and signed the $2.3 trillion coronavirus pandemic aid and spending package, which averted a shutdown of the federal government that would have begun on Tuesday and ensured continued unemployment benefits for Americans. He had made a cryptic tweet earlier saying that there was good news about the COVID relief bill. Previously, the president had expressed his displeasure at the package and had demanded an increase in the stimulus checks that were to be given to struggling Americans. 

The check amount had been set at $600, but Trump had demanded that they be increased to $2,000. The euro remained little changed at $1.2216, which kept it shy of $1.2273, a two-and-a-half-year high it had reached this month. While the Brexit deal made last week had certainly come off as a relief to investors, the bare-bones nature of the agreement is worrisome. According to analysts, it leaves Britain a lot more detached from the European Union, which suggests that the loss in value of UK assets that has existed since 2016 is not going to go away any time soon.

There has been no decision made by Brussels about whether Britain will be granted access to the financial markets of the bloc. The market analysts are expected both the sterling and the euro to fall against the US dollar by the end of the summer next year. They expect the currencies to reach values of $1.30 and $1.15 respectively against the greenback. Analysts believe that even with a Brexit deal in place, the cable is going to go down since people buy on rumors and sell the fact. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar climbed up gradually to 76.082 against the US dollar, reaching close to the two-and-a-half-year highs it had reached earlier this month at 76.390 cents. 

The yuan was inching up gradually after the official guidance level was listed by the central bank in China to its highest level in the last 30 months. The offshore yuan also experienced an increase of 0.1% against the dollar to reach 6.5200, while the onshore yuan was changing hands at 6.5296. The dollar, on the other hand, fell slightly against the yen at 103.455. Japan’s central bank’s policymakers were divided on how far to go for examining the yield curve, with some suggesting a comprehensive review.

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