March 24, 2023

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On Friday, the dollar strengthened further after its rise in recent sessions from four-month lows, as investors were keeping an eye out on U.S. inflation data to indicate the direction of the currency. In the early European and late Asian session, the U.S. dollar index climbed up by 0.1% on the day at 90.78. On Monday, there is a public holiday in Britain and the United States, which means that the gains in the dollar could be attributed to demand at the end of the month. As opposed to the yen, the dollar reached an almost seven-week high. The pair was changing hands at a value of 109.875. 

This pushed analysts to note that there was a fall in consumer prices in Japan, a rise in unemployment and there was also news that the country’s government was considering extending the state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, they did say that none of these developments would have any impact on the monetary policy of Japan. Therefore, it is the US dollar, US monetary policy, and risk sentiment that influence the price of the USD-JPY pair. There may be an uptrend in the short term, but a weaker dollar is expected during the year, which would lead to low USD-JPY levels.

There was a 0.1% fall in the euro at $1.21875, which was down from the recent high of $1.2266 it had reached. This was primarily because of the dovish comments made by the officials of the European Central Bank, which ended up sapping the dollar’s momentum before the policy meeting scheduled on June 10th. Earlier in the week, the New Zealand dollar had risen due to the possibility of an increase in rate by September 2022, but it fell by 0.6% to reach 0.7247. There was also a 0.3% fall in the Australian dollar at 0.7722. 

China’s onshore yuan was on track for achieving its best week after November, as it reached a three-year high. On Thursday, Chinese regulators made no changes to the current policy of the country but did add that they would be cracking down on the forex market manipulation. There was a 0.2% decline in the British pound at a value of $1.41835, as it seems to be having its best month this year against the dollar. On Thursday, a policymaker for the Bank of England said that interest rates could be raised by the Central Bank as early as the first half of next year, but it could possibly wait to do so later in 2022. 

There was a fall in the number of Americans filing for unemployment claims more than expected. An inflation report that focuses on personal consumption expenditures is due at 1230 GMT and watched closely by US central bankers. Later in the session, US President Joe Biden is also scheduled to release his first complete budget after he took office in January. It was reported by the New York Times that Biden is planning to seek federal spending worth $6 trillion for the 2022 fiscal year. 

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